record job loss for Electrical engineers and H-1B cap update

Date: Wednesday, July 08, 2009 3:11 AM

<<<<< JOB DESTRUCTION NEWSLETTER No. 2036 -- 7/07/2009 >>>>>

Unemployment for electrical engineers continues to increase. The 8.6%
unemployment is bad enough, but the number is an underestimate because it
doesn't include EEs that are underemployed, or who found a job in a lower
paying non-engineering job. There is plenty of evidence that unemployment
statistics for engineers and computer/IT are error prone because these
individuals are usually more resourceful than the general population at
finding survival jobs. Dr. Robert Rivers once estimated that the total number
of surplus engineers is 3.3 times the official unemployment rate which means
that right now the real unemployment rate for EEs is about 25%.

This study is old in terms of the numbers, but the reason for the errors
hasn't changed:

http://www.aea.org/documents/newsletter/071999.htm
"NEVER A SHORTAGE, ALWAYS A SURPLUS", American Engineering Association
Manpower Bulletin Vol. 1, No. 2, July 1999

Patrick Thibodeau got in a good jab at IEEE in the last paragraph of his new
Computerworld article. His remark is a bit misleading though, because the IEEE
has criticized H-1B in the past while at the same time supporting unlimited
importation of foreign engineers with instant green cards visas.
They refuse to make any connection at all between EE unemployment and the
importation of foreign engineers.

It's interesting to note that there are still plenty of H-1B visas available
for fiscal year 2010. As many as 20,000 visas are up for grabs that count
towards the cap. It seems that companies aren't even hiring H-1Bs!

http://www.uscis.gov/portal/site/uscis/menuitem.5af9bb95919f35e66f614176543f6d1a/?vgnextoid=138b6138f898d010VgnVCM10000048f3d6a1RCRD

As of July 3, 2009, approximately 45,000 H-1B cap-subject petitions
and approximately 20,000 petitions qualifying for the advanced
degree cap exemption had been filed. USCIS will continue to accept
both cap-subject petitions and advanced degree petitions until a
sufficient number of H-1B petitions have been received to reach the
statutory limits, taking into account the fact that some of these
petitions may be denied, revoked, or withdrawn.

Last year it took just a few days to give out all 65,000 visas, and in FY
2008 it took only a day. So far the stampede for visas that H-1B advocates
were predicting hasn't happened -- and yet corporations continue to claim that
the cap must be raised in order to avoid a national emergency.

So, is the slowdown in H-1B hiring good news or bad for American engineers?

In my opinion the trend doesn't bode well for American high tech workers
because they usually have to wait in the back of the line for jobs until all
of the H-1B visas are used up. If employers aren't hiring H-1Bs they aren't
hiring American engineers either. Last year high-tech workers started to find
job opportunities -- but only after the cap was reached.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9135265/Electrical_engineers_see_job_losses_at_record_levels?taxonomyId=1

Electrical engineers see job losses at record levels

IEEE-USA says engineering is a bellwether for recovery Patrick Thibodeau

July 7, 2009 (Computerworld) WASHINGTON -- The unemployment rate for
electrical engineers reached 8.6% in the second quarter of this year, a
record-setting number and double the unemployment rate for the group in the
first quarter, according to the IEEE-USA.

The last time the unemployment rate of electrical engineers was anything close
to this year's second quarter level was in 2003 when it reached 6.2%.
By the following year, the unemployment rate for electrical engineers dropped
to 2.2% and continued falling until 2007, reaching 0.9%, its low.

The IEEE-USA, part of the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers
Inc., believes engineering unemployment is a bellwether for the economy's
recovery and for job creation.

"These new data suggest we've got a long way to go as the United States
attempts to regain its economic footing," Gordon Day, the group's president,
said in a statement. Approximately 29,000 electrical engineers were unemployed
in the April-June quarter; in the first three months of 2009, that number was
13,000.

"We're surprised by the size of the jump in the unemployment rate and have no
basis to predict where it will go from here," said Day.

For all engineers, the IEEE-USA said that the unemployment rate increased from
3.9% in the first quarter to 5.5% in the second quarter. For computer
professionals, the unemployment rate remained at 5.4%.

During the last downturn, the IEEE-USA pointed to the use of H-1B visas as one
reason for the high 2003 unemployment rate.

The H-1B cap was set at 195,000 in fiscal year 2003, but it was reduced to
65,000 in 2004. When the unemployment rate fell, the engineering association
said the decline mirrored the reinstatement of the H-1B visa cap "to its
historic level of 65,000." But this time around, the IEEE-USA isn't drawing a
connection between engineering unemployment and the H-1B visa program.

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