ITAA's job stats doubted
ITAA's job stats doubted
Date: Wednesday, May 29, 2002 5:34 PM
*** H-1B NEWSLETTER ***
Get the Facts on H-1B at
www.ZaZona.com
The ITAA is definitely arming up it's propaganda machine for a new H-1B
push
in Congress. The one positive thing about this pair of articles is that
the
reporters cast some doubt on ITAA's shortage shouting. In years past
anything Harris Miller's ITAA put out to the press was accepted as
scientific proof.
http://search400.techtarget.com/originalContent/0,289142,sid3_gci826130,00.h
tml
ITAA's job stats doubted, questions raised about H1-B quotas
By Kate Evans-Correia, Senior News Editor
27 May 2002, Search400
Outraged over the number of H1-B visas granted to foreign workers, many
U.S.
IT professionals allege a powerful lobbying group is manipulating
lawmakers
with bogus employment statistics that benefit the major-league players
it
represents, such as Microsoft and Sun. FOR MORE INFORMATION
Best Web Links on Salary and Hiring
Critics liken The Information Technology Association of America (ITAA)
to
tobacco lobbyists and the NRA, and say the visa program that allows
companies to temporarily employ foreign workers in specialty
occupations,
such as computer programming, is robbing Americans of work and allowing
large corporations to hire cheaper labor.
"I am out of a job because of H1-B visas," said Philip Hawkins, an
independent consultant. "I have gone on job interviews and seen them
[H1-B
workers] already working on jobs I am trying to get. The big companies
only
want to raise the limits so that they can be sure of a cheap IT labor
force."
There are IT workers, such as Prakash Shah, president of Sai Sales Corp.
formerly of India and now a U.S. citizen, and Pete Meers, a database
administrator based in Australia, who agree with the intent of the H1-B
visa
and say they should be increased. Meers notes, too, that H1-B visas are
not
as easily obtained as U.S. workers believe.
Still, in an informal sampling of users, U.S.-based IT workers favoring
these visas were in the vast minority.
Earlier this month, the ITAA, which identifies Microsoft, Intel, IBM and
Sun
as the creme de la creme of their 500-plus members, released figures
estimating the demand for IT workers in the next 12 months would
increase
substantially over 2001. The group is projecting the need for 1.1
million
new IT workers in 2002. It also projects that nearly 600,000 of those
positions will go unfilled.
The obvious problem, say many IT professionals, is that the numbers
don't
accurately reflect a significant slump in the U.S. economy. Now they are
worried the ITAA's estimates will be used to help keep the temporary cap
a high of 195,000 -- on visas. That cap was raised from 65,000 in 1998
and
upped to 195,000 in 2000 because of concerns over predicted shortages in
skilled labor.
But the ITAA defends its methodology for the report and says the numbers
are
statistically accurate. ITAA commissioned independent research firm
Market
Decisions to conduct telephone interviews with 532 hiring managers from
IT
and non-IT organizations. The survey was sponsored and developed by a
dozen
organizations, including Microsoft and Intel.
ITAA President Harris Miller said the report is independent and the
research
is valid. He stressed that the numbers are projections and have never
been
published as anything else but projections.
"You either accept the numbers or you don't," he said. "We publicize
[the
report] because it's real. We wouldn't make it up. If someone believes
there's better research, then go and do it."
Miller also said his association's most recent numbers would not be used
to
lobby for the H1-B visa quotas next year.
But the ITAA's numbers have been off in the past. For instance, last
year,
the ITAA forecast 900,000 new positions for 2001 with 425,000 unfilled.
In
fact, according to national figures, the industry lost 500,000 jobs in
the
IT sector during 2001. In 2000, the ITAA forecast there would be 1.6
million
new jobs in 2000. However, the number of actual new jobs was much less.
"What they're reporting in that survey is manager's intent," said Nate
Viall
a hiring specialist in the iSeries industry. "It's amusing that in the
depths of recession, and in IT, that here comes this press release that
says
we're going to have this massive hiring attempt. They're straining their
credibility. Simply look at their [past] projection versus what actually
happened."
"I think [the ITAA report] is an attempt to up the [H1-B visa] quota,"
said
Guy Rich, senior systems engineer at Integrated Digital Systems.
Rich said he knows of several colleagues who are having a hard time
finding
work because of H1-B visa workers, and said he experienced the challenge
first hand. "I was bidding [on a contract] situation in Lincoln, Neb.,"
he
said. "The hiring manager and I couldn't come to terms on a rate, and he
flat out told me that he could get an East Indian to do the same job
cheaper."
It's unlikely, however, that despite the movement to abolish the H1-B
visa
by groups such as the Programmers Guild, the cap will ever be reduced.
"They'll get to keep the cap in place," said Dr. Norman Matloff of the
University of California at Davis, a severe critic of the ITAA and
author of
"Debunking the Myth of a Desperate Software Labor Shortage," which he
presented to the U.S. House Judiciary Committee in April 1998.
"I think the ITAA is ignoring data," Matloff said. "They're a lobbying
group
and lobbyists are sharks, and to be a good shark you've got to do what
good
sharks do."
Matloff said while employers claim to be desperate, their actions prove
otherwise, citing that employers hire only about 2% of their software
applicants.
"They admit that they reject the vast majority of their applicants
without
even an interview," he said. "If employers were so desperate, they could
not
afford to be so picky. The high-tech industry wields enormous,
unstoppable
clout on Capitol Hill and in the White House, and even in academia."
http://www.computerworld.com/careertopics/careers/labor/story/0,10801,71038,
00.html
The Big Secret
By PATRICIA KEEFE
MAY 13, 2002
Most conversations about the state of IT unemployment sooner or later
get
around to the Big Secret, the one thing everyone wants to know and most
pundits dance around: What are the hot skills required to land a job
today?
What is it exactly that the American IT workforce is missing?
We ran into that stonewall repeatedly while researching our April 29
special
report on the causes behind the depressed IT job market [QuickLink:
29295].
Last week, the Information Technology Association of America (ITAA), a
vendor trade group, announced some cheerful news: IT jobs are coming
back!
"The future of the IT worker is still bright," the group said, despite
the
massive layoffs of last year and this year's continuing recession.
Indeed, the ITAA's new survey of 523 hiring managers indicates that U.S.
companies will seek to fill as many as 1.1 million high-tech jobs in the
next 12 months. Sounds great. And I hope that's true, but based on the
extensive research we did over the past month, I seriously doubt the
ITAA's
conclusions - at least as far as the next six months are concerned.
First, the ITAA's projections on new hires work out to be only slightly
more
than were laid off last year, given their caveat of a so-called skills
imbalance, which I'll discuss further below. Second, IBM last week
warned
employees that it might have to cut jobs because customers aren't buying
as
much technology as they did in the past decade. IBM CEO Sam Palmisano
said
he expects the technology sector to remain below historical growth rates
this year and next.
Third, a smattering of new reports cite "cautious optimism" among
employers,
but very little in the way of concrete plans to add jobs or look for new
hires. Finally, toss in the continued and growing interest in
outsourcing -
not just here, but also abroad. The ITAA study found interest in "IT
outsourcing as a coping strategy" up 17%.
The ITAA, meanwhile, undercut its own good news by predicting that more
than
half of these new jobs will go unfilled due to a "skills imbalance,"
which,
by the way, is what employers and proponents say is the driving force
behind
H-1B hires. But most high-tech H-1B visa holders are hired to fill
engineering, systems analyst or programming jobs. And programmers,
followed
by engineers, comprise the largest sector of the U.S. IT workforce. So
there
is a disconnect here that needs further explanation.
It's just not enough to say we aren't graduating people with the right
skills, and babble about changes to the educational system. We have
masses
of experienced, unemployed people looking for work right now. Many of
these
laid-off IT workers are actively seeking to expand their skills and
could
sure use some direction.
The ITAA has teamed with Dice Inc. to create a Tech Skills Profile that
it
says will highlight the skills most in-demand today. Currently, they say
these are in C++, Oracle, SQL, Java and Windows NT.
These aren't exactly spanking-new technologies, so you'd think there'd
be a
match with many of our IT unemployed. In any case, now is the time to
brush
up your skills, since multiple reports point to late 2002 as the point
at
which we will start to see improvement in the IT job market. Hopefully,
more
specifics will be forthcoming as to what skills U.S. IT workers need to
add
to their repertoire. The industry and employers owe these workers an
answer.
Patricia Keefe is editorial director at Computerworld. You can contact
her
at patricia_keefe@computerworld.com.
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